16
Wholelotofbusiness
7yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 119
Listowel · Ballymore Handicap Hurdle (Listed) · 2m
#14
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲10
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 17.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C11.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -10.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | BHA120 | 8th | 21th | −11 |
| 2026-06-01 | Listowel | BHA121 | 8th | 21th | −11 |
| 2026-05-09 | Killarney | BHA121 | 3rd | 16th | −11 |
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | BHA122 | 10th | 23th | −11 |
| 2025-11-01 | Down Royal | BHA120 | 2nd | 15th | −11 |
| 2025-10-05 | Killarney | ? | 1st | 9th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 176% of fieldRange 7-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength9%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 93% | -0.02 |
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 94% | +0.26 |
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |
| 05/04/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 01/06/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 01/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |