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9

Fire Coral

7yo Mare · 11-4 · OR 90

Listowel · Guinness Listowel Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner last summer who made the frame again when creditable third of 15 in handicap hurdle (7/2) at Down Royal (3m, good) 28 days ago. Cheekpieces back on. Ought to give another good account.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: BHA46
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA75 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 75 · 2m1f165y Goo 143 · below its mark14/07/2025 · OR 75 par14/0775OR 75BHA76 @ Wexford 24/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 76 · 3m Gd 145 · below its mark24/07/2025 · OR 76 parBHA76 @ Downpatrick 10/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 76 · 2m5f180y Goo 146 · beat its mark10/08/2025 · OR 76 par10/0876OR 76BHA82 @ Down Royal 29/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 82 · 3m GF 150 · beat its mark29/08/2025 · OR 82 parBHA89 @ Listowel 26/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 89 · 2m6f Goo 157 · below its mark26/09/2025 · OR 89 par26/0989OR 89BHA88 @ Limerick 02/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 88 · 2m6f120y Gd 156 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 88 parBHA88 @ Wexford 23/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 88 · 3m Gd 156 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 88 par23/0788OR 88BHA46 @ Tramore 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 46 · 2m Goo 132 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 46 parBHA88 @ Down Royal 28/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 88 · 3m Goo 156 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 88 par28/0888OR 88projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Down RoyalBHA883rd3rd0
2026-08-15TramoreBHA463rd3rd0
2026-07-23WexfordBHA888th8th0
2026-07-02LimerickBHA883rd3rd0
2026-06-05ClonmelBHA890
2025-09-26ListowelBHA895th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0729/0823/0728/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength96%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/07/20253rd7/282%80%-0.02
24/07/20254th11/271%77%+0.06
10/08/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
29/08/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
26/09/20255th11/271%73%+0.02
02/07/20263rd20/10%88%+0.88
23/07/20268th10/382%46%-0.36
15/08/20263rd22/10%82%+0.82
28/08/20263rd7/282%86%+0.04