12
Madam Elle
6yo Mare · 10-11 · OR 83
Listowel · Guinness Listowel Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.2 /10 (raw 11.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Wexford | BHA85 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Naas | BHA87 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-02-10 | Limerick | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Clonmel | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Limerick | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Cork | ? | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength50%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/2025 | 15th | 250/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 27/12/2025 | 14th | 300/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |
| 08/01/2026 | 11th | 300/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 10/02/2026 | 7th | 250/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 04/03/2026 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 07/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |