IvyArcIvyArc
7

Moonshine Girl

7yo Mare · 11-6 · OR 92

Listowel · Guinness Listowel Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Found improvement, in first-time blinkers, when readily winning 19-runner handicap hurdle at Galway (2¾m, soft, 9/1) 18 days ago, travelling strongly. Raised 12 lb since but will be dangerous if headgear has desired effect again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA76 @ Sligo 01/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 76 · 2m5f27y Yie 145 · below its mark01/10/2025 · OR 76 par1/1076OR 76BHA76 @ Fairyhouse 21/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 76 · 3m55y Hvy 152 · below its mark21/11/2025 · OR 76 parC0 @ Punchestown 02/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 22 · OR - · 2m Yie 1632/05C?BHA76 @ Cork 10/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 21 · OR 76 · 3m80y Goo 144 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 76 parBHA75 @ Limerick 28/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 75 · 2m6f Sft 143 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 75 par28/0575OR 75BHA77 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 77 · 2m7f180y Gd 145 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 77 parBHA80 @ Ballinrobe 10/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 80 · 2m6f113y Goo 150 · below its mark10/08/2026 · OR 80 par10/0880OR 80BHA80 @ Down Royal 28/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 80 · 3m Goo 148 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 80 parBHA80 @ Galway 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR 80 · 2m6f97y Yie 149 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 80 par7/0980OR 80projClass-projected finish: 4th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07GalwayBHA801st1st0
2026-08-28Down RoyalBHA8013th13th0
2026-08-10BallinrobeBHA804th4th0
2026-07-06RoscommonBHA772nd2nd0
2026-05-28LimerickBHA752nd2nd0
2026-05-10CorkBHA767th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1010/0510/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength88%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/10/20253rd13/266%82%+0.16
21/11/20258th16/116%13%-0.03
02/05/202611th50/10%52%+0.52
10/05/20267th14/126%70%+0.44
28/05/20262nd8/158%92%+0.34
06/07/20262nd9/153%93%+0.41
10/08/20264th9/276%80%+0.04
28/08/202613th10/147%14%-0.33
07/09/20261st9/153%100%+0.47