4
Shing Shang Lily
5yo Mare · 11-10 · OR 96
Listowel · Guinness Listowel Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Wexford | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Clonmel | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Navan | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-17 | Tramore | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-06 | Wexford | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -13.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 17/08/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 20/09/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.58 |
| 02/10/2025 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 64% | +0.08 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |