5
Strong Contender
5yo Mare · 11-8 · OR 94
Listowel · Guinness Listowel Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: BHA79
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | BHA94 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sligo | BHA88 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wexford | BHA79 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Ballinrobe | BHA81 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA82 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Killarney | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 24/04/2026 | 13th | 150/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 09/05/2026 | 13th | 250/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 15/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 21/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 53% | +0.27 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |