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14

Western Opera

6yo Mare · 10-3 · OR 75

Listowel · Guinness Listowel Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 6f

#11

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has shaped as if she's building up to something for current connections, leaving the impression she should have finished closer when fourth of 18 at Limerick in July. Likely undone by shorter trip latest and is not ruled out here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: BHA78
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Punchestown 20/02/2025 · Pos 9th of 21 · OR - · 2m3f30y Sft 15920/02C8C8 @ Navan 01/03/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 2m Hvy 161BHA89 @ Listowel 02/06/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 89 · 2m Goo 146 · below its mark02/06/2025 · OR 89 par2/0689OR 89BHA85 @ Sligo 10/06/2025 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 85 · 3m1f170y Goo 147 · below its mark10/06/2025 · OR 85 parBHA80 @ Ballinrobe 22/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 80 · 2m6f41y Gd 149 · below its mark22/07/2025 · OR 80 par22/0780OR 80BHA82 @ Ballinrobe 25/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 82 · 2m6f61y Goo 148 · below its mark25/08/2025 · OR 82 parBHA79 @ Clonmel 05/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 79 · 2m113y Goo 147 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 79 par5/0679OR 79BHA79 @ Limerick 02/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 79 · 2m6f120y Gd 147 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 79 parBHA78 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 78 · 2m2f200y Gd 146 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 78 par24/0778OR 78projClass-projected finish: 5th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24KilbegganBHA786th6th0
2026-07-02LimerickBHA794th4th0
2026-06-05ClonmelBHA795th5th0
2026-05-27WexfordBHA800
2025-08-25BallinrobeBHA826th6th0
2025-07-22BallinrobeBHA802nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0210/065/0624/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 2-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength41%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/02/20259th250/10%60%+0.60
01/03/20254th200/10%63%+0.63
02/06/202512th25/10%0%0.00
10/06/202512th50/10%21%+0.21
22/07/20252nd40/10%93%+0.93
25/08/20256th6/168%50%-0.18
05/06/20265th66/10%71%+0.71
02/07/20264th22/10%82%+0.82
24/07/20266th9/153%67%+0.14