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6

Aurea Fortuna

7yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 104

Listowel · Paud, Sarah & Mary Fitzmaurice Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 3f

#16

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on lower chase mark at Punchestown last October. Failed to justify market position 3 subsequent starts over fences and may have been done for the year when well beaten over hurdles in April. Needs a close look in the betting with Daniel King booked for return. Engaged 4.17 here Thursday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C9.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA99 @ Leopardstown 28/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 23 · OR 99 · 2m4f Yie 152 · below its mark28/12/2024 · OR 99 par28/1299OR 99C8 @ Fairyhouse 06/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 102 · 2m4f Yie 158 · below its mark06/04/2025 · OR 102 parBHA102 @ Cork 10/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 102 · 2m4f Gd 158 · below its mark10/05/2025 · OR 102 par10/05102OR 102BHA101 @ Galway 03/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 101 · 2m160y Yie 151 · beat its mark03/08/2025 · OR 101 parBHA110 @ Navan 20/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 110 · 2m5f Yie 168 · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 110 par20/09110OR 110BHA96 @ Punchestown 15/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 96 · 2m7f39y Goo 158 · beat its mark15/10/2025 · OR 96 par3 @ Cheltenham 15/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 111 · 3m1f Hvy 147 · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 111 par15/113OR 111BHA106 @ Leopardstown 29/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 106 · 3m100y Yie 143 · below its mark29/12/2025 · OR 106 parBHA106 @ Fairyhouse 04/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR 106 · 2m5f45y Yie 146 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 106 par4/04106OR 106projClass-projected finish: 14th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-29PunchestownBHA1100
2026-04-04FairyhouseBHA1069th9th0
2025-12-29LeopardstownBHA1065th5th0
2025-11-15Cheltenham312th12th0
2025-10-15PunchestownBHA961st1st0
2025-09-20NavanBHA1103rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/123/0815/114/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 1812% of fieldRange 11-18 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength3%

Delivery trend -5.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 16th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/12/20243rd17/255%91%+0.36
06/04/20254th9/276%67%-0.10
10/05/20257th7/491%50%-0.41
03/08/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
20/09/20253rd16/583%87%+0.04
15/10/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
15/11/202512th3/184%27%-0.58
29/12/20255th7/282%67%-0.15
04/04/20269th5/174%50%-0.24