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Cloonainra

7yo Mare · 12-0 · OR 112

Listowel · Paud, Sarah & Mary Fitzmaurice Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 3f

#5

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hit and miss since justifying support on chasing debut over C&D this time last year. Back to her fairly useful best when runner-up in handicap hurdle at Kilbeggan (19f) latest. Could prove well treated if translating that form to fences.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Listowel 24/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 2m3f100y Yie 15424/09C82 @ Cheltenham 24/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m7f199y GS 1563 @ Ayr 02/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 126 · 2m4f110y Sft 161 · below its mark02/01/2026 · OR 126 par2/013OR 126BHA120 @ Naas 07/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 120 · 1m7f158y Sft 166 · below its mark07/02/2026 · OR 120 parC8 @ Down Royal 17/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 117 · 2m4f86y Goo 155 · below its mark17/03/2026 · OR 117 par17/03C8OR 117BHA117 @ Punchestown 29/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 24 · OR 117 · 2m3f58y Yie 163 · below its mark29/04/2026 · OR 117 parBHA115 @ Downpatrick 14/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 115 · 2m1f165y Gd 155 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 115 par14/06115OR 115BHA112 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 112 · 2m160y Goo 158 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 112 parBHA110 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 110 · 2m2f200y Goo 166 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 110 par21/08110OR 110projClass-projected finish: 10th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21KilbegganBHA1102nd2nd0
2026-08-02GalwayBHA1127th7th0
2026-06-14DownpatrickBHA11510th10th0
2026-04-29PunchestownBHA1175th5th0
2026-03-17Down Royal?4th4th0
2026-02-07NaasBHA1208th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/097/0214/0621/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1882% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/09/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
24/10/20255th17/255%33%-0.22
02/01/20269th9/153%0%-0.53
07/02/20268th14/126%36%+0.10
17/03/20264th7/282%50%-0.32
29/04/20265th22/10%83%+0.83
14/06/202610th10/147%0%-0.47
02/08/20267th18/15%63%+0.57
21/08/20262nd12/137%93%+0.56