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9

Cocovic

6yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 103

Listowel · Paud, Sarah & Mary Fitzmaurice Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 3f

#13

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up 3 times in maidens last year. Best effort this season when third on handicap/seasonal debut at Limerick in May. Looked in need of a greater stamina test when beaten 19 lengths at Kilbeggan (19f) and switch to fences could help (point winner earlier in his career).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fairyhouse 01/01/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 2m4f Yie 1661/01C8C8 @ Limerick 29/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 2m200y Goo 166C8 @ Kilbeggan 16/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 2m Goo 16616/06C8C8 @ Killarney 17/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 105 · 2m4f85y Yie 158 · below its mark17/07/2025 · OR 105 parC8 @ Sligo 20/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 108 · 2m4f107y Gd 158 · below its mark20/08/2025 · OR 108 par20/08C8OR 108C8 @ Listowel 21/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 108 · 2m6f Yie 166 · below its mark21/09/2025 · OR 108 parBHA106 @ Limerick 28/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 106 · 2m3f200y Sft 162 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 106 par28/05106OR 106BHA106 @ Limerick 02/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 106 · 2m4f Gd 166 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 106 parBHA105 @ Kilbeggan 03/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 105 · 2m3f Goo 161 · below its mark03/09/2026 · OR 105 par3/09105OR 105projClass-projected finish: 13th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03KilbegganBHA1057th7th0
2026-08-21KilbegganBHA1050
2026-07-02LimerickBHA1065th5th0
2026-05-28LimerickBHA1063rd3rd0
2025-09-21Listowel?9th9th0
2025-08-20Sligo?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0117/0728/053/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 186% of fieldRange 15-18 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 17th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/01/20258th22/10%36%+0.36
29/05/20258th33/10%22%+0.22
16/06/20252nd3/184%92%+0.08
17/07/20252nd7/282%93%+0.11
20/08/20252nd8/1397%83%-0.13
21/09/20259th3/184%11%-0.73
28/05/20263rd7/163%75%+0.12
02/07/20265th5/287%69%-0.18
03/09/20267th15/261%54%-0.07