2
Crescent Moon
6yo Mare · 11-12 · OR 110
Listowel · Paud, Sarah & Mary Fitzmaurice Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 3f
#14
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA112 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | BHA113 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Killarney | BHA113 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-03 | Leopardstown | BHA117 | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-26 | Leopardstown | BHA117 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1841% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 20/04/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 07/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 31/10/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/11/2025 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/11/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 28/07/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |