3
Drop A Threat
7yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 109
Listowel · Paud, Sarah & Mary Fitzmaurice Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 3f
#18
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#18
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA104 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA104 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | BHA105 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Tramore | BHA107 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-15 | Kilbeggan | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Tramore | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1829% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength78%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 08/01/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 15/02/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 19/03/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 65% | -0.14 |
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 73% | -0.21 |
| 15/05/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 31% | -0.43 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 28/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 74% | +0.26 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 94% | +0.26 |