10
Gaelic Des Chastys
10yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 103
Listowel · Paud, Sarah & Mary Fitzmaurice Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 3f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Killarney | BHA103 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-29 | Thurles | BHA93 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Limerick | BHA90 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Limerick | BHA90 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Limerick | BHA87 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Listowel | BHA98 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1888% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2025 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 47% | -0.21 |
| 17/07/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 05/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 93% | +0.11 |
| 21/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 26/09/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 93% | +0.08 |
| 18/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 85% | +0.03 |
| 28/12/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 94% | +0.10 |
| 29/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 93% | +0.22 |