13
Giant Haystacks
7yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 100
Listowel · Paud, Sarah & Mary Fitzmaurice Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 3f
#11
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Wexford | BHA101 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA101 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | BHA95 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Tramore | BHA95 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Downpatrick | BHA100 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Thurles | BHA102 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1824% of fieldRange 12-18 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 64% | -0.18 |
| 28/12/2025 | 12th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 15/01/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 77% | +0.06 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 28/07/2026 | 12th | 5/1 | 74% | 42% | -0.32 |
| 28/08/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |