14
Grange Walk
11yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 100
Listowel · Paud, Sarah & Mary Fitzmaurice Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 3f
#15
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | BHA103 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Kilbeggan | BHA106 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA106 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA112 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Ballinrobe | BHA108 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Limerick | BHA113 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 180% of fieldRange 12-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 18/01/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 02/02/2026 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 12/03/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 57% | +0.52 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 55% | -0.06 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 04/09/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |