IvyArcIvyArc
8

Nettuno Italia

6yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 104

Listowel · Paud, Sarah & Mary Fitzmaurice Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 3f

#12

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Staying type who won a handicap hurdle at Punchestown (23f, heavy). Stepped up on chasing debut when landing an extended 21f handicap at Tramore latest, doing well to get up after his saddle slipped approaching the last. Open to further progress, for all he faces another drop back in trip here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA90 @ Naas 03/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 90 · 2m7f180y Goo 158 · below its mark03/04/2025 · OR 90 par3/0490OR 90BHA90 @ Roscommon 29/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 90 · 2m4f53y Goo 163 · below its mark29/09/2025 · OR 90 parBHA90 @ Fairyhouse 04/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 90 · 3m Sft 146 · below its mark04/11/2025 · OR 90 par4/1190OR 90BHA90 @ Limerick 18/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 90 · 3m100y Hvy 158 · below its mark18/11/2025 · OR 90 parBHA89 @ Punchestown 12/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 89 · 2m6f Sft 146 · below its mark12/01/2026 · OR 89 par12/0189OR 89BHA89 @ Punchestown 26/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 89 · 2m7f Hvy 159 · beat its mark26/01/2026 · OR 89 parC8 @ Punchestown 15/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 98 · 2m6f148y Hvy 145 · below its mark15/02/2026 · OR 98 par15/02C8OR 98C8 @ Clonmel 26/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 98 · 2m7f122y Sft 155 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 98 parBHA98 @ Tramore 19/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 98 · 2m5f140y Yie 146 · beat its mark19/04/2026 · OR 98 par19/0498OR 98projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-19TramoreBHA981st1st0
2026-03-26Clonmel?8th8th0
2026-02-15Punchestown?5th5th0
2026-01-26PunchestownBHA891st1st0
2026-01-12PunchestownBHA895th5th0
2025-11-18LimerickBHA905th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0418/1115/0219/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1853% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength52%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/04/20255th6/168%75%+0.07
29/09/20255th7/282%71%-0.10
04/11/20254th11/486%75%-0.11
18/11/20255th10/382%64%-0.19
12/01/20265th3/184%73%-0.11
26/01/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
15/02/20265th15/890%56%-0.35
26/03/20268th5/174%46%-0.28
19/04/20261st9/488%100%+0.12