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18

Nolans Rocco

7yo Mare · 10-12 · OR 96

Listowel · Paud, Sarah & Mary Fitzmaurice Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 3f

#17

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#17

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened her account in 16-runner handicap chase at Limerick (23f, heavy) back in March, though very nearly threw it away having hung badly left run-in. No impact either start since, latterly when supported at long odds on return. RESERVE

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cork 21/04/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 2m Yie 16521/04C?C8 @ Tipperary 08/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 2m7f110y Goo 156C0 @ Limerick 19/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 2m3f50y Yie 16119/10C?C8 @ Galway 25/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 2m2f54y Yie 159BHA89 @ Tramore 25/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 89 · 2m5f100y Sft 157 · below its mark25/11/2025 · OR 89 par25/1189OR 89BHA88 @ Tramore 01/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 88 · 2m6f170y Sft 164 · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 88 parBHA88 @ Thurles 19/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 88 · 2m5f132y Sft 163 · below its mark19/02/2026 · OR 88 par19/0288OR 88BHA91 @ Limerick 12/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 91 · 2m6f170y Hvy 159 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 91 parBHA97 @ Galway 07/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 97 · 2m6f111y Sft 149 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 97 par7/0997OR 97projClass-projected finish: 7th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07GalwayBHA977th7th0
2026-04-10WexfordBHA970
2026-03-12LimerickBHA911st1st0
2026-02-19ThurlesBHA882nd2nd0
2026-02-04Punchestown?0
2026-01-01TramoreBHA884th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0425/1019/027/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1818% of fieldRange 10-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength16%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/04/202511th18/15%17%+0.11
08/05/20254th25/10%67%+0.67
19/10/20258th100/10%13%+0.13
25/10/202510th200/10%0%0.00
25/11/20257th10/147%54%+0.06
01/01/20264th10/147%77%+0.30
19/02/20262nd9/153%93%+0.41
12/03/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
07/09/20267th12/137%40%+0.03