17
Potters Pal
5yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 97
Listowel · Paud, Sarah & Mary Fitzmaurice Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 3f
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 7.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Listowel | BHA97 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Limerick | BHA97 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-26 | Clonmel | BHA89 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Clonmel | BHA90 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-26 | Punchestown | BHA93 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-12 | Punchestown | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength94%
Delivery trend +6.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/2025 | 15th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 26/12/2025 | 14th | 150/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 12/01/2026 | 11th | 200/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 26/01/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/09/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |