15
Stoneyford Lady
7yo Mare · 11-2 · OR 100
Listowel · Paud, Sarah & Mary Fitzmaurice Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 3f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Ballinrobe | BHA100 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA100 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Wexford | BHA101 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Roscommon | BHA103 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA104 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Limerick | BHA104 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 18100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 26/12/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 46% | +0.09 |
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 54% | -0.01 |
| 08/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 84% | +0.42 |