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16

Toon Town

9yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 99

Listowel · Paud, Sarah & Mary Fitzmaurice Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 3f

#7

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Underlined positive start for current stable when winning 11-runner 2½m handicap chase at Limerick in May. Hasn't fully fired in 3 starts since, however, did respond well to this change of headgear for previous yard. RESERVE

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C9.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA90 @ Clonmel 06/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 90 · 2m1f50y Sft 158 · below its mark06/11/2025 · OR 90 par6/1190OR 90BHA90 @ Thurles 20/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 90 · 2m2f65y Yie 149 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 90 par5 @ Catterick 16/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 96 · 1m7f145y Goo 161 · below its mark16/12/2025 · OR 96 par16/125OR 96BHA91 @ Cork 06/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 91 · 2m Yie 159 · below its mark06/04/2026 · OR 91 parBHA94 @ Killarney 11/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 94 · 2m4f100y Goo 150 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 94 par11/0594OR 94BHA94 @ Limerick 21/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 94 · 2m3f176y Goo 150 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 94 parBHA91 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 91 · 2m1f Goo 160 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 91 par3/0891OR 91BHA100 @ Killarney 20/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 100 · 2m4f180y Goo 159 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 100 parBHA90 @ Wexford 28/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 90 · 2m4f100y Gd 161 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 90 par28/0890OR 90projClass-projected finish: 11th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28WexfordBHA907th7th0
2026-08-20KillarneyBHA1005th5th0
2026-08-03CorkBHA917th7th0
2026-05-21LimerickBHA941st1st0
2026-05-11KillarneyBHA943rd3rd0
2026-04-06CorkBHA916th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/116/043/0828/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1859% of fieldRange 9-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength11%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/11/20256th14/126%67%+0.40
20/11/20254th8/158%79%+0.21
16/12/20252nd13/891%75%-0.16
06/04/20266th10/147%74%+0.26
11/05/20263rd14/126%85%+0.58
21/05/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
03/08/20267th4/179%60%-0.19
20/08/20265th22/10%60%+0.60
28/08/20267th11/271%54%-0.17