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An Lachin Beag

6yo Mare · 11-11

Listowel · Shanahan Power Irish EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race · 2m

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Set to show improved form when falling heavily at the last on Sligo hurdling debut in early August and stepped up on her previous efforts in bumpers when fourth of 18 at Galway a month on. More needed, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Naas 09/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 2m Sft 1659/11C?C0 @ Down Royal 26/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f53y Yie 16126/12C?C0 @ Galway 07/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR - · 2m160y Sft 1657/09C?projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Galway?4th4th0
2026-08-06Sligo?0
2025-12-26Down Royal?11th11th0
2025-11-09Naas?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/1126/127/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1769% of fieldRange 7-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength21%

Delivery trend -26.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/11/20253rd40/10%82%+0.82
26/12/202511th33/10%29%+0.29
07/09/20264th9/153%82%+0.30