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Blue Train

4yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 68

Listowel · Listowel Races Supporters Club Failte Abhaile (Q.R.) Race In Memory Of Pat Scanlon · 1m 6f

#12

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair Flat winner on Flat for William Knight who proved a different proposition when making a winning handicap hurdle debut at Clonmel (2m, soft) in April. Similar form when fifth in a Cork novice the following month but others rate stronger back in this sphere on unfavourable terms.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 21/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 62 · 1m2f Sta 122 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 62 par21/085OR 625 @ Kempton 18/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 62 · 1m2f219y Sta 129 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 62 par6 @ Kempton 08/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 61 · 1m3f219y Sta 132 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 61 par8/106OR 616 @ Kempton 15/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 61 · 1m3f219y Sta 138 · beat its mark15/10/2025 · OR 61 parC8 @ Fairyhouse 13/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 2m Sft 15413/12C8C8 @ Thurles 29/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 1m7f179y Hvy 161C8 @ Naas 22/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 21 · OR - · 1m7f110y Hvy 15422/02C8BHA107 @ Clonmel 02/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 107 · 1m7f200y Sft 155 · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 107 parC8 @ Cork 10/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 117 · 2m1f65y Goo 159 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 117 par10/05C8OR 117projClass-projected finish: 7th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-10Cork?5th5th0
2026-04-02ClonmelBHA1071st1st0
2026-02-22Naas?8th8th0
2026-01-29Thurles?7th7th0
2025-12-13Fairyhouse?4th4th0
2025-10-15Kempton62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0815/1022/0210/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1731% of fieldRange 4-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength44%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/20254th17/255%57%+0.02
18/09/20253rd10/382%83%+0.01
08/10/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
15/10/20252nd2/598%89%-0.09
13/12/20254th10/147%73%+0.25
29/01/20267th66/10%45%+0.45
22/02/20268th100/10%65%+0.65
02/04/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
10/05/20265th9/276%43%-0.33