2
Davy Crockett
5yo Gelding · 11-4
Listowel · Listowel Races Supporters Club Failte Abhaile (Q.R.) Race In Memory Of Pat Scanlon · 1m 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Tramore | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Ballinrobe | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-28 | Punchestown | 1 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Naas | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1756% of fieldRange 2-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2025 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 28/07/2025 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 01/02/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 18% | -0.24 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 04/04/2026 | 14th | 9/1 | 53% | 24% | -0.29 |
| 28/04/2026 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 89% | -0.01 |