12
Morse
6yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 65
Listowel · Listowel Races Supporters Club Failte Abhaile (Q.R.) Race In Memory Of Pat Scanlon · 1m 6f
#15
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 7.8)
Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Cork | BHA67 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Leopardstown | BHA67 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Curragh | BHA69 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Leopardstown | BHA71 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Curragh | BHA73 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Roscommon | BHA76 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 176% of fieldRange 11-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/2024 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 40% | +0.35 |
| 12/01/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 29/03/2025 | 14th | 18/1 | 5% | 24% | +0.18 |
| 01/09/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 04/10/2025 | 12th | 7/1 | 63% | 21% | -0.42 |
| 19/10/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 65% | +0.38 |
| 02/11/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 30/08/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 65% | +0.04 |