13
Quinta Do Lago
4yo Gelding · 11-0
Listowel · Listowel Races Supporters Club Failte Abhaile (Q.R.) Race In Memory Of Pat Scanlon · 1m 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Punchestown | BHA126 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Cheltenham | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Fairyhouse | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Leopardstown | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Punchestown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Cork | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1794% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 26/12/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 44% | +0.02 |
| 14/01/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 10/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 81% | +0.81 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |