14
Sunny South West
6yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 82
Listowel · Listowel Races Supporters Club Failte Abhaile (Q.R.) Race In Memory Of Pat Scanlon · 1m 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Leopardstown | BHA84 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Roscommon | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Thurles | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Leopardstown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1781% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/07/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 22/07/2025 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 40% | -0.55 |
| 29/12/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 94% | +0.15 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 69% | -0.10 |
| 12/09/2026 | 16th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |