16
Typical Thomas
9yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 116
Listowel · Listowel Races Supporters Club Failte Abhaile (Q.R.) Race In Memory Of Pat Scanlon · 1m 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C11.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | BHA110 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA116 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Downpatrick | BHA110 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Tramore | BHA116 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Listowel | BHA116 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-16 | Kilbeggan | BHA120 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1744% of fieldRange 5-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength39%
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2024 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 15/03/2025 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/05/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/06/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 30% | +0.14 |
| 26/09/2025 | 7th | 100/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 29/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 26/06/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 17% | +0.11 |
| 04/09/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |