2
Caitlin Said Run
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 50
Meadowlands · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Meadowlands | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-09-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength3%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 09/08/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 18/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |