4
Stella Mars
8yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 85
Meadowlands · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
65%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength89%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 19/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 88% | -0.07 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 16/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |