Beware Of Pride
5yo Horse · 8-11 · OR 76
Meadowlands · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |