Discreet Devil

6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 71

Meadowlands · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength56%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.4

Today:

Class gap: +1.1

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-05	Delaware Park	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-08-28	Charles Town	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-08-08	Delaware Park	?	5th	3rd	+2	7.4
2026-06-27	Monmouth Park	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-06-17	Delaware Park	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0
2026-05-30	Delaware Park	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength26%

Delivery trend +3.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/01/2026	7th	30/1	0%	0%	0.00
13/05/2026	8th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00
21/05/2026	7th	40/1	0%	0%	0.00
30/05/2026	6th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
17/06/2026	4th	33/1	0%	40%	+0.40
27/06/2026	6th	13/2	66%	0%	-0.66
08/08/2026	5th	33/1	0%	20%	+0.20
28/08/2026	3rd	14/1	26%	60%	+0.34
05/09/2026	6th	100/1	0%	38%	+0.38