Island Spirit
6yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 80
Meadowlands · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-08-02 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-07-11 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 28/09/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 14/01/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/02/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 02/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |