Noble Jon

7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 91

Meadowlands · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f

Rank

Odds

7/5

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

83%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength32%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-05	Colonial Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-08-21	Colonial Downs	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-05-30	Laurel Park	?	1st	0th	+1	5.0
2026-05-15	Laurel Park	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-04-24	Laurel Park	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-03-14	Turfway Park	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength84%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/11/2025	7th	9/1	53%	33%	-0.19
29/11/2025	6th	12/1	37%	29%	-0.08
28/12/2025	2nd	9/2	76%	91%	+0.15
14/03/2026	2nd	13/2	66%	88%	+0.22
24/04/2026	8th	7/2	82%	36%	-0.45
15/05/2026	6th	7/2	82%	38%	-0.44
30/05/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12
21/08/2026	1st	5/4	93%	100%	+0.07
05/09/2026	3rd	15/8	90%	78%	-0.12