13
Leader Carisaie
5yo Gelding · 10-3
Nantes · Prix De La Societe Du Trotteur Francais - Monte · 1m 6f 200y
#6
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Chateaubriant | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-05 | Chartres | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-24 | Maure De Bretagne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-28 | Angers | 5 | +1 | ||
| 2026-01-23 | Saint Brieuc | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -8.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 24/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 85% | +0.37 |