2
Lonely Rider
5yo Gelding · 10-3
Nantes · Prix De La Societe Du Trotteur Francais - Monte · 1m 6f 200y
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 6 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-19 | La Capelle | 5 | +1 | ||
| 2025-10-04 | Laval | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Vincennes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-12 | Laval | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-02-28 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2024 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 18/11/2024 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 28/12/2024 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 12/01/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |
| 04/02/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 28/02/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 12/06/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 01/09/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |