IvyArcIvyArc
10

Manhattan Cera

4yo Gelding · 0-0

Nantes · Prix Du Petit-port - Attele · 1m 6f 200y

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 6
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Caen 20/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 1m4f39y Std 020/09C?C0 @ Cabourg 02/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 1m5f120y Std 02/10C?C0 @ Meslay Du Maine 28/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 1m6f64y Std 028/05C?C0 @ Vichy 29/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m6f146y Std 029/06C?6 @ Le Mont-Saint-Michel 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 1m5f65y Std 016/076C0 @ Chateaubriant 13/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 1m6f200y Std 013/09C?projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Chateaubriant?8th8th0
2026-07-16Le Mont-Saint-Michel62nd3rd−1
2026-06-29Vichy?2nd2nd0
2026-05-28Meslay Du Maine?12th12th0
2025-10-02Cabourg?8th8th0
2025-09-20Caen?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/092/1028/0529/0616/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength48%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/20255th9/153%67%+0.14
02/10/20258th10/382%46%-0.36
28/05/202612th125/10%15%+0.15
29/06/20262nd6/594%86%-0.08
16/07/20262nd25/10%92%+0.92
13/09/20268th9/153%22%-0.30