4
Mitsuki Du Bourg
4yo Gelding · 0-0
Nantes · Prix Du Petit-port - Attele · 1m 6f 200y
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Les Sables | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Les Sables | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Pornichet | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Le Mans | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-28 | Chartres | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Chartres | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 05/03/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 05/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 04/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 26/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |