15
Iago De Senoville
8yo Gelding · 10-3
Nantes · Prix Jules Verne - Monte · 1m 6f 200y
#12
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength41%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Cholet | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Craon | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Pornichet | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Cholet | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Laval | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Cordemais | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1627% of fieldRange 7-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 92% | +0.77 |
| 24/12/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 80% | +0.75 |
| 06/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.47 |
| 27/02/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 28/03/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 79% | +0.21 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 07/09/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 20/09/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |