15
Luciola De Lou
5yo Filly · 0-0
Nantes · Prix De Nantes - Attele · 1m 6f 200y
#7
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Vire | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Meslay Du Maine | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2026-06-29 | Enghien | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Vichy | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Meslay Du Maine | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Vire | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 7-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength36%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 85% | +0.32 |
| 28/11/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 70% | +0.09 |
| 15/12/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.35 |
| 08/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 93% | +0.05 |
| 18/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 09/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 58% | +0.11 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |