4
Lune Rose D'alesa
5yo Filly · 0-0
Nantes · Prix De Nantes - Attele · 1m 6f 200y
#15
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +5.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Pornichet | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Vichy | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Laval | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-12 | Graignes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Chartres | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-09 | Mauquenchy | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 167% of fieldRange 9-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength33%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 17/03/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 04/04/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 29/08/2025 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 13/10/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 54% | +0.17 |
| 09/11/2025 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 18/05/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 24/08/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |