11
Le Baron Bezillat
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Nantes · Prix De L'automne - Attele · 1m 6f 200y
#13
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Argentan | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-05 | Saint-Malo | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Chatelaillon | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Le Mont-Saint-Michel | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Laval | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Vincennes | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 9-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 93% | +0.78 |
| 30/11/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 58% | +0.21 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 03/04/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 25/06/2026 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 30/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 27/07/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |