16
Ideal D'urzy
8yo Gelding · 0-0
Nantes · Prix Kervegan - Attele · 1m 6f 200y
#1
Rank
Odds
19/10
Win Prob
88%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength58%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Vincennes | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Mauquenchy | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-25 | Le Mans | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Les Sables | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-22 | Caen | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Caen | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2024 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 88% | -0.06 |
| 26/12/2024 | 12th | 3/1 | 84% | 27% | -0.58 |
| 13/03/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 09/07/2025 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 29/07/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |