1
Insomnia Erca
8yo Mare · 0-0
Nantes · Prix Kervegan - Attele · 1m 6f 200y
#10
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Pornichet | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Nantes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-07-03 | Lisieux | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-03-17 | Caen | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-10-03 | Cabourg | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2022 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 24/04/2023 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 21/06/2023 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 09/02/2024 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 47% | -0.11 |
| 12/07/2024 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 17/03/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 03/07/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 01/06/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 93% | +0.77 |