15
Izijal
8yo Gelding · 0-0
Nantes · Prix Kervegan - Attele · 1m 6f 200y
#13
Rank
Odds
70/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength41%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Vire | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Vincennes | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Vincennes | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Vincennes | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-02-01 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 160% of fieldRange 12-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 16th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 10/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 79% | +0.05 |
| 19/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 03/01/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 87% | -0.03 |
| 01/02/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/02/2026 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 27/03/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 45% | -0.12 |
| 29/05/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 06/09/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |