12
Jannig D'erevan
7yo Horse · 0-0
Nantes · Prix Kervegan - Attele · 1m 6f 200y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength57%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Lisieux | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Cabourg | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Cabourg | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-07-03 | Cabourg | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Caen | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-08-29 | Cabourg | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength90%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 19/06/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/07/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 85% | +0.27 |
| 02/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 29/08/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 87% | -0.03 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 77% | +0.11 |
| 24/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 58% | -0.02 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |