13
Joss Capello
7yo Gelding · 0-0
Nantes · Prix Kervegan - Attele · 1m 6f 200y
#7
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 3 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Enghien | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-04 | Pontchateau | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Chatelaillon | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-08 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 5 | +1 | ||
| 2026-02-03 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 4 | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 11-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength8%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 85% | +0.79 |
| 12/06/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 30% | +0.25 |
| 29/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 26/08/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 05/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 03/02/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 79% | +0.08 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |