IvyArcIvyArc
13

Beat The Odds

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 45

Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Handicap · 1m 4f 98y

#13

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★ Timeform

Commentary

Poor maiden who failed to get home over this trip at Wolverhampton 30 days ago. 1 lb out of the weights. Hard to fancy.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 02/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 1m5y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS2/0555 @ Ripon 04/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 1m2f190y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS4/0655 @ Newcastle 20/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 1m5y Std 142 · HIGHER CLASS20/0456 @ Wolverhampton 11/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 45 · 1m1f104y Std 121 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 45 par11/056OR 456 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 45 · 1m2f42y Sta 142 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 45 par26/066OR 456 @ Wolverhampton 26/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 43 · 1m4f51y Std 135 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 43 par26/086OR 43projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Wolverhampton65th5th0
2026-06-26Newcastle66th6th0
2026-05-11Wolverhampton68th8th0
2026-04-20Newcastle59th8th+1
2025-06-04Ripon56th5th+1
2025-05-02Newcastle57th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/054/0620/0411/0526/0626/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength77%

Delivery trend +13.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20257th100/10%0%0.00
04/06/20256th125/10%0%0.00
20/04/20269th200/10%27%+0.27
11/05/20268th125/10%30%+0.30
26/06/20266th80/10%58%+0.58
26/08/20265th50/10%60%+0.60