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9

Beckon

3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 61

Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Handicap · 1m 4f 98y

#10

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★ Timeform

Commentary

Won a course novice in December prior to finishing third in 7f Southwell handicap on all-weather in the spring but has been well below that level on turf since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Kempton 19/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 1m Sta 126 · HIGHER CLASS19/1125 @ Wolverhampton 06/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 7f36y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Newcastle 20/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m5y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS20/1255 @ Southwell 17/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 68 · 1m13y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Southwell 15/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 67 · 7f14y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 67 par15/045OR 675 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 66 · 1m Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/08/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 66 · 7f173y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 66 par19/085OR 666 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 19 · OR 64 · 7f219y Goo 135 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 64 par9/096OR 64projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Redcar614th14th0
2026-08-19Carlisle59th8th+1
2026-08-10Ayr59th8th+1
2026-04-15Southwell53rd2nd+1
2026-01-17Southwell56th5th+1
2025-12-20Newcastle51st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1117/0119/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/11/20254th28/10%75%+0.75
06/12/20253rd5/287%71%-0.15
20/12/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
17/01/20266th6/492%38%-0.55
15/04/20263rd8/158%67%+0.09
10/08/20269th33/10%11%+0.11
19/08/20269th125/10%0%0.00
09/09/202614th80/10%28%+0.28