Dancingondiamonds
4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 62
Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Handicap · 1m 4f 98y
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Chepstow | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Doncaster | 3 | 3rd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Uttoxeter | 4 | +2 | ||
| 2026-06-11 | Worcester | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-01-13 | Dundalk | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-05-13 | Killarney | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +9.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 56% | -0.08 |
| 13/01/2026 | 5th | 1/2 | 97% | 50% | -0.47 |
| 11/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 150/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |