8
Farabove The Limit
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 62
Newcastle · Northumbrian WaterAid Handicap · 1m 4f 98y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Newcastle | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-11-17 | Newcastle | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Bellewstown | BHA68 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength88%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2025 | 11th | 125/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 28/07/2025 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 03/08/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 02/10/2025 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/11/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 19/12/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 04/02/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 10/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |